This article first appeared in the PB January 2003
issue of Pro Builder.
Sept. 2002 Affordability |
Sept. 2002 Demand |
Sept. 2002 Supply |
Sept. 2002 Housing Cycle Barometer |
Sept. 2002 12-Month Job Growth |
Sept. 2002 Single-Family Permits as a % of Peak |
||
Excellent Outlook |
|||||||
Riverside-San Bernardino |
Good |
High |
Very Low |
3.8 |
2.7% |
68% |
|
Charlotte |
Excellent |
High |
High |
0.0 |
1.3% |
93% |
|
Jacksonville |
Excellent |
High |
High |
2.3 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
Good Outlook |
|||||||
Philadelphia |
Excellent |
Very Low |
Very Low |
2.3 |
(1.0%) |
69% |
|
Hartford |
Excellent |
Very Low |
Very Low |
1.7 |
(1.8%) |
41% |
|
Albuquerque |
Excellent |
Moderate |
High |
0.0 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
Nashville |
Excellent |
Moderate |
High |
0.0 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
San Antonio |
Excellent |
Moderate |
High |
1.1 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
Washington |
Excellent |
Low |
Moderate |
2.0 |
(0.5%) |
86% |
|
Las Vegas |
Good |
High |
High |
2.8 |
1.7% |
98% |
|
Milwaukee |
Good |
Moderate |
Moderate |
3.8 |
0.4% |
75% |
|
Cleveland |
Excellent |
Low |
High |
2.5 |
(0.6%) |
91% |
|
Cincinnati |
Excellent |
Low |
High |
0.6 |
(0.7%) |
93% |
|
Dallas |
Excellent |
Low |
High |
0.0 |
(0.4%) |
97% |
|
Columbus, Ohio |
Excellent |
Low |
High |
1.9 |
(0.3%) |
99% |
|
Indianapolis |
Excellent |
Low |
High |
0.0 |
(0.7%) |
92% |
|
Kansas City |
Excellent |
Low |
High |
1.9 |
(0.5%) |
95% |
|
Orlando |
Excellent |
Low |
High |
2.4 |
(0.4%) |
100% |
|
Moderate Outlook |
|||||||
Providence |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Very Low |
4.7 |
0.4% |
45% |
|
West Palm Beach |
Moderate |
Moderate |
Very Low |
5.0 |
0.9% |
68% |
|
Detroit |
Excellent |
Very Low |
Moderate |
2.3 |
(1.4%) |
83% |
|
Houston |
Good |
Moderate |
High |
3.7 |
0.0% |
100% |
|
San Diego |
Poor |
High |
Very Low |
6.8 |
1.8% |
53% |
|
Atlanta |
Excellent |
Very Low |
High |
1.6 |
(2.6%) |
100% |
|
St. Louis |
Excellent |
Very Low |
High |
0.5 |
(1.3%) |
92% |
|
Baltimore |
Moderate |
Low |
Very Low |
4.0 |
(0.6%) |
61% |
|
Los Angeles |
Moderate |
Low |
Very Low |
4.3 |
(0.7%) |
35% |
|
Oakland |
Moderate |
Low |
Very Low |
5.3 |
(0.5%) |
69% |
|
Charleston, S.C. |
Moderate |
High |
High |
5.2 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
Cautious Outlook |
|||||||
Salt Lake City |
Good |
Very Low |
Moderate |
2.7 |
(1.5%) |
79% |
|
Portland, Ore. |
Moderate |
Moderate |
High |
4.3 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
Miami |
Poor |
High |
Moderate |
6.0 |
1.4% |
76% |
|
Chicago |
Good |
Very Low |
High |
3.9 |
(1.5%) |
100% |
|
Phoenix |
Good |
Very Low |
High |
2.8 |
(1.1%) |
100% |
|
Fort Lauderdale |
Poor |
Low |
Very Low |
6.3 |
(0.7%) |
58% |
|
Orange County, Calif. |
Poor |
Low |
Very Low |
6.0 |
(0.2%) |
57% |
|
Sacramento |
Moderate |
Low |
High |
5.4 |
(0.3%) |
100% |
|
Minneapolis |
Moderate |
Low |
High |
4.6 |
(0.8%) |
95% |
|
Tampa |
Moderate |
Low |
High |
5.0 |
(0.5%) |
96% |
|
Denver |
Moderate |
Very Low |
Moderate |
5.2 |
(1.9%) |
83% |
|
Worried Outlook |
|||||||
New York |
Poor |
Very Low |
Very Low |
6.0 |
(2.1%) |
46% |
|
Boston |
Poor |
Very Low |
Very Low |
9.9 |
(1.6%) |
49% |
|
San Francisco |
Poor |
Very Low |
Very Low |
5.7 |
(3.4%) |
56% |
|
San Jose |
Poor |
Very Low |
Very Low |
5.5 |
(3.5%) |
37% |
|
Affordability - Based on our analysis of each market's history of housing costs (down payment + mortgage payments) compared with income |
|||||||
Demand - Based on current job and population growth |
|||||||
Supply - Based on current single-family supply levels compared with the market's historical supply levels |
|||||||
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