2003 Outlook

2003 Outlook for builders in various metropolitan markets
By John Burns | December 31, 2002
 
Sept. 2002 Affordability
Sept. 2002 Demand
Sept. 2002 Supply
 
Sept. 2002 Housing Cycle Barometer
Sept. 2002 12-Month Job Growth
Sept. 2002 Single-Family Permits as a % of Peak
Excellent Outlook
Riverside-San Bernardino
Good
High
Very Low
 
3.8
2.7%
68%
Charlotte
Excellent
High
High
 
0.0
1.3%
93%
Jacksonville
Excellent
High
High
 
2.3
1.0%
100%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Good Outlook
Philadelphia
Excellent
Very Low
Very Low
 
2.3
(1.0%)
69%
Hartford
Excellent
Very Low
Very Low
 
1.7
(1.8%)
41%
Albuquerque
Excellent
Moderate
High
 
0.0
0.3%
100%
Nashville
Excellent
Moderate
High
 
0.0
0.3%
96%
San Antonio
Excellent
Moderate
High
 
1.1
0.2%
100%
Washington
Excellent
Low
Moderate
 
2.0
(0.5%)
86%
Las Vegas
Good
High
High
 
2.8
1.7%
98%
Milwaukee
Good
Moderate
Moderate
 
3.8
0.4%
75%
Cleveland
Excellent
Low
High
 
2.5
(0.6%)
91%
Cincinnati
Excellent
Low
High
 
0.6
(0.7%)
93%
Dallas
Excellent
Low
High
 
0.0
(0.4%)
97%
Columbus, Ohio
Excellent
Low
High
 
1.9
(0.3%)
99%
Indianapolis
Excellent
Low
High
 
0.0
(0.7%)
92%
Kansas City
Excellent
Low
High
 
1.9
(0.5%)
95%
Orlando
Excellent
Low
High
 
2.4
(0.4%)
100%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Moderate Outlook
Providence
Moderate
Moderate
Very Low
 
4.7
0.4%
45%
West Palm Beach
Moderate
Moderate
Very Low
 
5.0
0.9%
68%
Detroit
Excellent
Very Low
Moderate
 
2.3
(1.4%)
83%
Houston
Good
Moderate
High
 
3.7
0.0%
100%
San Diego
Poor
High
Very Low
 
6.8
1.8%
53%
Atlanta
Excellent
Very Low
High
 
1.6
(2.6%)
100%
St. Louis
Excellent
Very Low
High
 
0.5
(1.3%)
92%
Baltimore
Moderate
Low
Very Low
 
4.0
(0.6%)
61%
Los Angeles
Moderate
Low
Very Low
 
4.3
(0.7%)
35%
Oakland
Moderate
Low
Very Low
 
5.3
(0.5%)
69%
Charleston, S.C.
Moderate
High
High
 
5.2
1.3%
100%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cautious Outlook
Salt Lake City
Good
Very Low
Moderate
 
2.7
(1.5%)
79%
Portland, Ore.
Moderate
Moderate
High
 
4.3
0.7%
92%
Miami
Poor
High
Moderate
 
6.0
1.4%
76%
Chicago
Good
Very Low
High
 
3.9
(1.5%)
100%
Phoenix
Good
Very Low
High
 
2.8
(1.1%)
100%
Fort Lauderdale
Poor
Low
Very Low
 
6.3
(0.7%)
58%
Orange County, Calif.
Poor
Low
Very Low
 
6.0
(0.2%)
57%
Sacramento
Moderate
Low
High
 
5.4
(0.3%)
100%
Minneapolis
Moderate
Low
High
 
4.6
(0.8%)
95%
Tampa
Moderate
Low
High
 
5.0
(0.5%)
96%
Denver
Moderate
Very Low
Moderate
 
5.2
(1.9%)
83%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Worried Outlook
New York
Poor
Very Low
Very Low
 
6.0
(2.1%)
46%
Boston
Poor
Very Low
Very Low
 
9.9
(1.6%)
49%
San Francisco
Poor
Very Low
Very Low
 
5.7
(3.4%)
56%
San Jose
Poor
Very Low
Very Low
 
5.5
(3.5%)
37%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Affordability - Based on our analysis of each market's history of housing costs (down payment + mortgage payments) compared with income
Demand - Based on current job and population growth
Supply - Based on current single-family supply levels compared with the market's historical supply levels

Comments

Related Categories

PB-Management
expand_less