2003 Outlook

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2003 Outlook for builders in various metropolitan markets

January 01, 2003















































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































 


Sept. 2002 Affordability


Sept. 2002 Demand


Sept. 2002 Supply


 


Sept. 2002 Housing Cycle Barometer


Sept. 2002 12-Month Job Growth


Sept. 2002 Single-Family Permits as a % of Peak


Excellent Outlook


Riverside-San Bernardino


Good


High


Very Low


 


3.8


2.7%


68%


Charlotte


Excellent


High


High


 


0.0


1.3%


93%


Jacksonville


Excellent


High


High


 


2.3


1.0%


100%


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Good Outlook


Philadelphia


Excellent


Very Low


Very Low


 


2.3


(1.0%)


69%


Hartford


Excellent


Very Low


Very Low


 


1.7


(1.8%)


41%


Albuquerque


Excellent


Moderate


High


 


0.0


0.3%


100%


Nashville


Excellent


Moderate


High


 


0.0


0.3%


96%


San Antonio


Excellent


Moderate


High


 


1.1


0.2%


100%


Washington


Excellent


Low


Moderate


 


2.0


(0.5%)


86%


Las Vegas


Good


High


High


 


2.8


1.7%


98%


Milwaukee


Good


Moderate


Moderate


 


3.8


0.4%


75%


Cleveland


Excellent


Low


High


 


2.5


(0.6%)


91%


Cincinnati


Excellent


Low


High


 


0.6


(0.7%)


93%


Dallas


Excellent


Low


High


 


0.0


(0.4%)


97%


Columbus, Ohio


Excellent


Low


High


 


1.9


(0.3%)


99%


Indianapolis


Excellent


Low


High


 


0.0


(0.7%)


92%


Kansas City


Excellent


Low


High


 


1.9


(0.5%)


95%


Orlando


Excellent


Low


High


 


2.4


(0.4%)


100%


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Moderate Outlook


Providence


Moderate


Moderate


Very Low


 


4.7


0.4%


45%


West Palm Beach


Moderate


Moderate


Very Low


 


5.0


0.9%


68%


Detroit


Excellent


Very Low


Moderate


 


2.3


(1.4%)


83%


Houston


Good


Moderate


High


 


3.7


0.0%


100%


San Diego


Poor


High


Very Low


 


6.8


1.8%


53%


Atlanta


Excellent


Very Low


High


 


1.6


(2.6%)


100%


St. Louis


Excellent


Very Low


High


 


0.5


(1.3%)


92%


Baltimore


Moderate


Low


Very Low


 


4.0


(0.6%)


61%


Los Angeles


Moderate


Low


Very Low


 


4.3


(0.7%)


35%


Oakland


Moderate


Low


Very Low


 


5.3


(0.5%)


69%


Charleston, S.C.


Moderate


High


High


 


5.2


1.3%


100%


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Cautious Outlook


Salt Lake City


Good


Very Low


Moderate


 


2.7


(1.5%)


79%


Portland, Ore.


Moderate


Moderate


High


 


4.3


0.7%


92%


Miami


Poor


High


Moderate


 


6.0


1.4%


76%


Chicago


Good


Very Low


High


 


3.9


(1.5%)


100%


Phoenix


Good


Very Low


High


 


2.8


(1.1%)


100%


Fort Lauderdale


Poor


Low


Very Low


 


6.3


(0.7%)


58%


Orange County, Calif.


Poor


Low


Very Low


 


6.0


(0.2%)


57%


Sacramento


Moderate


Low


High


 


5.4


(0.3%)


100%


Minneapolis


Moderate


Low


High


 


4.6


(0.8%)


95%


Tampa


Moderate


Low


High


 


5.0


(0.5%)


96%


Denver


Moderate


Very Low


Moderate


 


5.2


(1.9%)


83%


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Worried Outlook


New York


Poor


Very Low


Very Low


 


6.0


(2.1%)


46%


Boston


Poor


Very Low


Very Low


 


9.9


(1.6%)


49%


San Francisco


Poor


Very Low


Very Low


 


5.7


(3.4%)


56%


San Jose


Poor


Very Low


Very Low


 


5.5


(3.5%)


37%


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Affordability - Based on our analysis of each market's history of housing costs (down payment + mortgage payments) compared with income


Demand - Based on current job and population growth


Supply - Based on current single-family supply levels compared with the market's historical supply levels

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