One of the big barriers to a housing industry recovery is the perception that there are a large number of vacant homes out there that are going to flood the market any day now.
That perception may be wrong, though, according to respected housing economist Tom Lawler. Lawler analyzed some of the preliminary data being released from the 2010 Census and says the numbers don't jive with those the Census Bureau was releasing for 2009 vacancy estimates.
He posted his findings today on the Calculated Risk blog:
What is, of course, especially noteworthy is that the “gross” vacancy rates from the HVS for 2009 (which are yearly average estimates) are massively higher than the Census 2010 estimates for April 1, 2010, as well as being materially higher than those from the ACS for 2009.
Read more at Calculated Risk.