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Experts Predict a U-Shaped Recovery Spread Out Over Years

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Experts Predict a U-Shaped Recovery Spread Out Over Years


June 4, 2020
Housing aerial in Florida
By icholakov

The good news for home builders is that many of the people who wanted to buy a home in spring still need to move at some point. The bad news is it could be a longer road to recovery than first expected, according to a Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey sponsored by Zillow and conducted by Pulse Economics LLC. Out of the more than 100 economists, investment strategists, and real estate experts, 41 percent predict that the recovery will be U-shaped with the recession lasting several quarters. The missing spring home sales will come back, but when is up for debate. Some said that the next spring buying season will double up on sales, but a majority responded that the recovery will be spread out over the coming months.

When coronavirus turned the economy upside down, anxiety and uncertainty about the future initially kept many homebuyers and sellers at bay. Inventory and sales have picked up over the past month, though, and a panel of housing experts and economists say the U.S. housing market hasn’t lost those missing springtime transactions for good.

The Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, sponsored by Zillow and conducted quarterly by Pulsenomics LLC, asks more than 100 economists, investment strategists and real estate experts for their predictions about the U.S. housing market. The Q2 survey focused on the impact of coronavirus on the market and expected recovery patterns, and also asked for predictions on how the pandemic will shape home-buying decisions in the future.

Coronavirus and subsequent stay-at-home orders resulted in lower-than-expected transaction volume during what was primed to be a busy spring home shopping season. While it was thought the spring buying season could shift to the fall, the pandemic effects are poised to continue into summer and only 10% of the survey panelists said they believe those transactions will materialize later in 2020. More than twice as many experts (22%) said they expect a “double up” during next spring’s shopping season, and the vast majority predicted that recovery will be spread out over the next several years. 

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