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Housing Not Expected to Impact the Next Recession

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Housing Not Expected to Impact the Next Recession

The consensus among leading economists is that the next recession is unlikely to be triggered by the housing market


September 14, 2017
New home for sale

Most economists say that a recession is not looming, and that even when it does occur, the housing market will stand apart from it.

Zillow polled more than 100 leading economists to gauge the state of housing and the economy. The sentiment is that an economic downturn is extremely unlikely for 2017, and fairly unlikely for 2018. The consensus is that the next recession is unlikely to be triggered by the housing market, and that a recession will only have a moderate impact on housing.

The leading predictions for the cause of the next recession include geopolitical crises, monetary policy, or a stock market correction.

Economists also say that, compared to last decade when housing did play a role in the recession, borrowers are not overextended this time around. Regulations are stricter, and buyers no longer have easy access to financing. Zillow says that there is no nationwide housing bubble to worry about.

Zillow reports that new home building is down compared to the early 2000s. While existing home sales have rebounded, new home sales are 41 percent below the early 2000s average.

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