How Home Affordability Has Shifted Post-Pandemic
Today’s first-time homebuyers are facing one of the most challenging housing markets in decades, according to a JPMorganChase report on how housing affordability has changed since 2019. Since the onset of the pandemic, both home prices and interest rates have surged, making homes much less affordable.
Back in 2019, only about one-fifth of people expected home prices to rise by 20% or more over the next five years, but in reality home prices climbed by around 50% nationwide by the end of 2024, according to the research.
At the same time, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped from 3.7% in late 2019 to 6.9% by the end of 2024. The rise in both prices and rates has caused monthly mortgage payments for potential buyers to roughly double.
Income growth remains moderate
Incomes have not grown at the same level as housing costs, even for younger generations that historically see higher wage growth than older adults.
From December 2019 to December 2024, those aged 24 to 44 years old saw wages grow by 41%. At the same time, the typical homebuyer in 2024 would need to spend about 45% more of their income on mortgage payments than in 2019.
Rural areas experienced the majority of affordability challenges
Although cities are traditionally associated with having more costly homes, rural and suburban areas saw the greatest price increases between 2019 and 2024, likely because of pandemic-related lifestyle changes.
Small metros—defined as areas with 500,000 to 1 million people—saw the largest increase in home prices but the lowest income growth. Meanwhile, large cities with more than 1 million people saw less home-price growth but higher income growth.
More on how the market has changed in recent years...
- 10 Housing Market Trends From the Past Year: Whether it's in the rental market or the for-sale market, housing affordability declined significantly in 2023.
- How Housing Costs Have Changed Over the Last 10 Years: The average home sale price in 2014 was $347,700, but by 2023, the average home sale grew to $513,800.