New Sales Data Reveals 'Darker' Housing Picture

Pending home sales in the U.S. decreased 2.6 percent in October 2018 over the previous month, a four-year low, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors.

The NAR index tracks real estate contract signings, considered a leading indicator for existing-home sales reports; the index was down 6.7 percent annually in October. The Northeast region was the only one with an increase, 0.7 percent. Sales fell in the Midwest (1.8 percent), the South (1.1 percent), and the West saw the greatest drop, 8.9 percent, Realtor.com reports, concluding, "the housing picture is growing darker."

when new home sales decline and inventory increases, like we've been seeing in recent months, that's typically not a great sign for the economy pic.twitter.com/UnvWdZQ3cq

— Leonard Kiefer (@lenkiefer) November 28, 2018

The Realtors trade group now expects sales of existing homes to decline 3.1 percent in 2018, and another 0.4 percent in 2019. The group also forecasts home prices will fall 2.5 percent next year. Economists have been mixed on the signals from the housing market, even as the warning signs become harder to ignore.

“By all accounts, we are seeing a buyers’ strike this year, as prospective homebuyers have tired of surging home prices, frenzied bidding on scarce homes for sale and most recently rising mortgage rates,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities. “The slowdown in home-price appreciation in recent months should help to bring the housing market into better balance.”

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