Number of Buyers 'Priced Out' in 2019

If the median price for a new home in the U.S. increases by $1,000 in 2019, 127,560 households would be priced out of the nation's housing market.

That's according to the latest "priced out" estimates from the National Association of Home Builders, tabulating how many households would no longer be able to qualify for a mortgage to purchase a home after new-home median price growth of $1,000. Geographically, the share of households priced out of local markets vary widely; Texas was the state with the largest impact registered--a $1,000 home price increase would price out 11,152 households out of the market. California was second-most, 9,897, and Ohio was third-most, 7,341.

Also studied was the impact of rising mortgage interest rates on "priced out" households, and the findings show that approximately 1 million could not afford the median-priced new home if it was $1,000 higher and rates increase from 4.85 percent to 5.1 percent nationally.

The metropolitan area with the largest priced out effect, in terms of absolute numbers, is Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI, where 4,499 households are squeezed out of the market for a new median-priced home if price increases by $1,000. This is largely because Chicago is a populous metropolitan area with a large number of households; and, compared to the largest metropolitan areas on the East and West coasts, the median priced home is more affordable to begin with. Around 27 percent of households there are capable of buying new median-priced homes.

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