Tight Housing Market Expected To Level Off Existing Home Sales

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November 21, 2016

For a little while, it looked like home sales could continue to rise even as inventory shrunk.

Analysis from Zillow reports that the incongruity ended in September, as early reports of strong existing home sales were revised lower. The site expects that existing sales will be flat in October, at 5.47 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).

While existing home inventory has weighed on the market, new construction has provided a modest boost. New home sales have shot up after remaining stubbornly low for much of the housing market recovery. But with housing starts falling, our forecast points to a 3.7 percent monthly decline in new home sales in October, to 571,000 units (SAAR). This would still be up 19.4 percent from October 2015, but below July and August’s relatively strong numbers.

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