Upcoming Election Adds to Buyer, Seller Concerns

As if the pandemic is not stressful enough, some homebuyers and sellers are now concerned about the presidential election affecting their buying or selling plans. But if we have learned anything from the housing market during the pandemic, it’s that little could keep activity down right now. Redfin reports that 22% of 1,400 surveyed buyers and sellers say the election is impacting their selling or buying plans within the next 12 months. Past presidential elections have had little effect on the real estate market, says Redfin. And only 13% said the election is making them hesitant to buy or sell. 

“Some home sellers—and buyers, to a lesser extent—are delaying their plans because of all the stress and uncertainty in the world, including the divisiveness surrounding the presidential election,” said Danielle Field, a Redfin real estate agent in Louisville, KY. “They don’t want to add one more stressful experience to their lives. I’m hopeful that once the election is over and there’s finally some certainty in this country, people will start putting their homes on the market again, creating more inventory for buyers.”

Past presidential elections have had minimal correlation with U.S. home sales rising or falling, which squares with Redfin’s survey findings. Home sales rose by an average of just 0.4% in October and November of presidential election years compared with non-election years, according to a Redfin analysis of home sales going back to 1980, which includes 10 presidential elections and controls for other economic factors such as changes in mortgage rates. In the December of presidential election years—the month representing closed sales for offers made during November, the election month—home sales dropped by an average of 1.5%, followed by a 1.5% recovery in January. 

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