2019 National Housing Forecast's 'Wild Card'

With the new year on the horizon, housing experts are highlighting four major trends they see coming for buyers and sellers in terms of supply, affordability, demographics, and the 'wild card' of new tax law.

The passage and implementation of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) fueled much speculation and concern regarding its ramifications on housing for 2018. Alas, most taxpayers won't be settling up with Uncle Sam until April 2019 under the new tax rules, and as a result, the impact of the TCJA remains cloudy. Andrew Hanson, associate professor of economics at Marquette University in Milwaukee, Wisc. tells Realtor.com, "I think [TCJA] will affect mostly homeowners and buyers in the upper parts of the distribution. Those who either own or are buying higher-priced homes are going to pay a lot more," yet Hanson predicts that the biggest change caused by the TCJA will be in mortgages, with borrowers less likely to take out big mortgages, "If anyone is going to be upset about the tax plan, it'll be mortgage bankers," he says.

We're entering the home stretch of 2018, when you can actually say, "See you next year!" to someone you'll see in just a few weeks. It's a time to look ahead, to make new plans, to achieve new dreams. And if those dreams include buying your own home, you should keep an eye on the ever-changing tides of the housing market. Now, markets are like the weather: You can't entirely predict how they will act, but you can get a sense of the forces that will push things in one direction or another.

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