2023 Home Prices Could Post Their First Year-Over-Year Decline in a Decade

As high mortgage rates take center stage in 2023, home sales could fall to their lowest level since 2011, and home prices will likely follow a similar downward trajectory
Dec. 8, 2022

Mortgage rates are expected to remain elevated into 2023, and paired with high homeowner equity preventing would-be sellers from listing and relocating, the year ahead could see the slowest home sales in more than a decade, Redfin reports. Existing home sales are expected to fall 31% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2023, followed by smaller annual declines later in the year.

Redfin predicts that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will gradually decline to roughly 5.8% by the end of the year, and the median U.S. home-sale price is expected to drop by around 4% year-over-year to $368,000, marking the first annual drop since 2012. Still, lingering affordability challenges will keep buyer demand low nationwide.

Prices will start their decline in the first quarter, falling by roughly 2% from a year earlier, marking the first year-over-year drop since the beginning of 2012. Home-sale prices will likely fall by about 5% year over year in the second and third quarters, then ease to about a 3% drop by the end of the year as lower rates bring buyers back to the market.

Read more

Sign up for Pro Builder Newsletters
Get the latest news and updates.

Related

97405317 © Vasyl Dolmatov | Dreamstime.com
Homebuyers moving into an existing-home
142739335 © Wutthichai Luemuang | Dreamstime.com
A homebuyer debates on whether or not to sign a contract