Home Purchases Expected to Pick Up By 2026
Key Takeaways:
- Lower mortgage rates should lead to both an increase in home purchases and refinancing through 2027.
- Mortgage originations are projected to surpass $2 trillion in 2025, driven by a 48% increase in refinance dollars and a 12% rise in home-purchase loans.
- In 2026, total mortgage volume is expected to reach $2.27 trillion.
While home sales in 2025 have stagnated, they are set to improve in the near future, according to a recent report from forecasting and advisory services firm iEmergent. In its 2025-2027 U.S. Mortgage Origination Forecast, the firm suggests total mortgage originations will climb to $2.27 trillion in 2026, which is a 13% increase from 2025.
While mortgage rates are expected to remain high through 2025, a projected decline in 2026 is expected to bring more buyers to the market. Additionally, homeowners looking to refinance their current rates are expected to boost the share of mortgage originations over the next few years.
2025: Total mortgage origination volume is forecast to surpass $2 trillion for the first time since 2022, driven by a 48% jump in refinance dollars and 12% in purchase dollar gains, an overall 20% increase from 2024.
2026: Total mortgage origination volume is projected to reach $2.27 trillion, a 13% increase from 2025. Refinance units are expected to grow 24% as lower rates boost activity, and a 2.3% increase in purchase units will help push total loan count up nearly 10% year-over-year.
2027: Purchase activity is projected at 4.09 million loans totaling $1.56 trillion, while refinance units are expected to hold steady at 2.37 million, with dollars dipping slightly at $754 billion.
Related
