Home Builder Confidence Remains Low in November

Ongoing economic uncertainty across the U.S. kept home builder sentiment low in November. According to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), builder confidence in the newly built single-family home market rose to 38 in November, a one-point gain from the previous month. The HMI is based on a 1-100 scale, with 50 being a neutral level of market sentiment.

The latest HMI also shows that 41% of builders reported cutting prices in November in order to attract potential homebuyers, with an average price reduction of 6%. The former is a record high in the post-pandemic period and the first time it has surpassed 40%. Additionally, 65% of builders reported the use of incentives to make a sale.

While lower mortgage rates are a positive development for affordability conditions, many buyers remain hesitant because of the recent record-long government shutdown and concerns over job security and inflation. We continue to see demand-side weakness as a softening labor market and stretched consumer finances are contributing to a difficult sales environment. After a decline for single-family housing starts in 2025, NAHB is forecasting a slight gain in 2026 as builders continue to report future sales conditions in marginally positive territory.