These Housing Markets Are Considered the Most ‘At-Risk’

Housing markets across the U.S. saw affordability challenges persist during Q1 2025, but not all regions of the U.S. faced the same level of risk.

In its Special Housing Risk Report, housing market data provider ATTOM analyzed data from U.S. counties in Q1 2025 to determine which local housing markets are most at risk of a potential downturn. Using data surrounding affordability, foreclosure activity, unemployment rates, and other factors, the report determined that California and New Jersey had the highest share of counties considered the most at risk of a downturn.

In fact, 23 of the 50 most at-risk counties were in California and New Jersey—14 and 9 counties, respectively. The three most at-risk counties were Butte, Humboldt, and Shasta counties. Located in Northern California, these counties have dealt with major affordability challenges over the last several years and have also been impacted by recent wildfires. New Jersey’s Atlantic and Cumberland counties were also included in the top five most at-risk counties. 

More than half (27) of the 50 least at-risk counties in the analysis were located in Southern states, followed by 12 from Midwestern states and seven from states in the Northeast. Tennessee led the way with nine counties: Sullivan, Hamilton, Washington, Blount, Sumner, Davidson, Wilson, Knox, and Rutherford.

Virginia posted seven counties among the 50 most favorable: Henrico, Prince William, Alexandria City, Arlington, Virginia Beach City, Loudoun, and Fairfax. And Wisconsin had four: Outagamie, Winnebago, Brown, and La Crosse.