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After Extreme Volatility in 2022, Housing Experts Are Split on Where the Market Goes Next

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Market Data + Trends

After Extreme Volatility in 2022, Housing Experts Are Split on Where the Market Goes Next

Economists at Zillow and Moody's Analytics are forecasting two very different paths for the housing market in 2023


April 13, 2023
Small house with orange roof next to big white question mark
Image: taniasv / stock.adobe.com

The 2022 housing market followed a roller-coaster trajectory of peak highs followed by a sudden drop-off, and after a year of volatility, housing experts aren’t sure where the housing market is headed next. The first several months of 2023 saw a number of regional markets enter correction mode, but a seasonal shift is once again sending home prices higher, Fortune reports.

While Zillow expects 238 of the 400 largest housing markets it tracks to see positive home price growth between January 2023 and January 2024, Moody’s Analytics predicts that just eight markets will see home prices rise between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2023, and the other 395 markets will see home prices decline over the next 12 months.

Is this the home price bottom or simply a head-fake?

It depends on who you ask.

Heading forward, Zillow economists expect U.S. home values as tracked by the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) to rise 0.5% between January 2023 and January 2024. Meanwhile, economists at Moody’s Analytics expect U.S. home prices, as measured by the Moody’s Analytics Repeat Sales House Price Index, to fall 4.2% between December 2022 and December 2023.

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