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Some of the housing market’s top economists are expressing concerns over an impending market crash ahead of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index report, due Aug. 29. After declining in late 2022 and early 2023, home prices have been notching steady increases since February, rising 0.7% month-over-month in May for the fourth straight month of gains. To quell a fast run-up in home prices, the Federal Reserve upped its federal funds rate, subsequently sending 30-year fixed mortgages above 7.49% for the first time since 2000, InvestorPlace reports.

Some economists worry that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage could climb past 8% this year, but as long as inventory remains tight, home prices aren’t likely to drop drastically in the near future.

“This is quite a heated market, in a sense,” said Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors’ chief economist. “At least in terms of prices, it looks like the housing recession is already over.”

That said, it hasn’t been all peaches and cream. According to last month’s Case-Shiller, prices are still down 1% year-over-year in the 10-city index. In the 20-city index, prices were down 1.7% from last year.

“The fate of the housing market in the coming months will be dictated in part by the direction of mortgage rates, as well as the health of the broader economy,” said Mark Hamrick, Bankrate’s senior economic analyst. “The market could benefit from a combination of tailwinds, if they were to develop and are sustained, including easing inflation.”

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