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Housing Markets Most Vulnerable to Decline

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Market Data + Trends

Housing Markets Most Vulnerable to Decline

A recent report spotlights markets that are more vulnerable to decline due to less-affordable homes and higher levels of underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and unemployment


March 8, 2024
Rowhouses in Brooklyn, NY, a housing market at risk of decline in Q4 2023
Image: auseklis /stock.adobe.com

In a recent report analyzing Q4 2023 housing market data at the county level, property data provider ATTOM Data found three states continue to have the highest concentrations of vulnerable markets. 

In Q3 2023, California, New Jersey, and Illinois had the most-at-risk markets (markets with weaker affordability and job numbers and higher rates of foreclosures and underwater mortgages). In Q4, that was still the case, according to ATTOM's latest Special Housing Risk Report, with some of the biggest at-risk clusters occurring in the New York City and Chicago metro areas and in inland California, while lower-risk markets continue to be mainly spread throughout the South and Midwest, including nine markets in Wisconsin and five in Kansas.

The 50 most at-risk counties included one in New York City (Kings County, which covers Brooklyn), five in the New York City suburbs (Essex, Ocean, Passaic, Sussex and Union counties, all in New Jersey) and five in the Chicago metropolitan area (De Kalb, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will counties).

The 14 located across inland California were Butte County (Chico), Sacramento County, El Dorado County (outside Sacramento) and Solano County (outside Sacramento) in the northern part of the state, and Fresno County, Kern County (Bakersfield), Kings County (outside Fresno), Madera County (outside Fresno), Merced County (outside Fresno), San Joaquin County (Stockton), Stanislas County (Modesto) and Tulare County (outside Fresno) in central California. Two others, Riverside County and San Bernardino County, were in southern California.

Elsewhere, the top-50 list included two in the Philadelphia, PA, metro area (Camden and Gloucester counties in New Jersey) and two near St. Louis, MO (Saint Clair and Madison counties in Illinois).

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