Housing Outlook Seeks to 'End the Guesswork'

May 31, 2018
Chimney with three birds
Photo: Unsplash/Zoltan Kovacs

In a recent housing outlook webinar, John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, offered six key points expected to shape the market over the next few years.

Burns' first point was the expectation that mortgage rates will hit 5.1 percent by 2021, as anticipated by the bond market. On a macro-level, Burns explains that housing is an unlikely source of a future economic recession, due to "historically low single-family construction and tight mortgage documentation." He adds that home prices would fall should another economic sector cause a recession, per John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Too, Burns points out the power of President Donald Trump in shaping mortgage policy, explaining that the recent repeal of portions of Dodd-Frank signal which way policy seems to be heading.

6.8 percent bull’s-eye building materials forecast. Our building materials spending forecast, which is the only one to include multifamily and rental homes, calls for solid growth the next two years. We project that slightly smaller homes, a slowing economy, and a pivot to more DIY projects will slow the robust growth rate in 2020 and later. Our forecasts by product and region provide better insight for specific companies. 

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