How Presidential Candidates Would Affect Housing

May 20, 2016

Currently, U.S. economists, real estate experts, and academics believe home values will continue to grow steadily over the next few years. While the numbers are expected to grow in the 3 to 4 percent range, they could drop considerably depending on who is elected president at the end of the year.

Conducted by Pulsenomics and sponsored by Zillow, the Q2 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey queried a panel of 107 experts across the country on their expectations for home value growth through 2020 and how the various presidential candidates impact their view.

Donald Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz, who has since dropped out of the race, and Sen. Bernie Sanders were identified as the candidates whose elections the experts believe would affect the housing market negatively. Among respondents, 45 percent said Trump being elected president would impact their expectations for future home value growth very negatively or somewhat negatively. 16 percent of respondents said their expectations would be impacted somewhat or very positively if trump were elected.

For Hilary Clinton, 33 percent of respondents said a Clinton presidency would have a somewhat or very positive effect on their home value forecast, compared to 16 percent that said it would have a somewhat or very negative impact.

In addition to Clinton, Gov. John Kasich, who dropped out weeks ago, had also been seen as a candidate whose election would contribute to more favorable or neutral home value expectations and the overall performance of the U.S. economy. In fact, Kasich was the candidate most likely to positively impact the panelists’ views of future home values. Only 3 percent of respondents say a Kasich election would have negatively affected their home value forecast and 5 percent said their overall economic outlook would be negatively affected. (This was due in large part to Kasich’s prior experience as House Budget Committee Chairman under Bill Clinton during the 1990s economic boom.)

Meanwhile, 59 percent of respondents said Bernie Sanders being elected president would somewhat or very negatively influence their home value forecasts, and over three-fourths of the panelists said their overall economic outlook would be somewhat or very negatively impacted by a Sanders presidency.

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