Panel of Experts Clocks Coming Housing Milestones

A panel of more than 100 real estate economists and experts weigh in on when they anticipate the tide of housing market conditions to shift from favoring sellers to buyers, how it may set a record, and when the next recession could hit. 

In a quarter three survey from Zillow, 76 percent of industry experts say they don't expect a "meaningful shift" toward a buyer's market until 2020 or later. Until then, a solid majority of panelists (70 percent) believe that the current business cycle will likely peak in 2019 or 2020, adding that there was a 70.5 percent chance that the current period of economic expansion would set a new record as the longest in U.S. history. Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas points out that earlier in 2018, the same panel said they expected the next recession to start in 2020.

Panelists were also asked for their projections of home value growth over the next several years. Home values across the country are expected to continue to see strong appreciation in 2018, with a predicted 5.9 percent increase by December compared to December 2017. Growth is expected to slow to 4.2 percent by the end of next year, before falling below 3 percent in each of the years from 2020 through 2022. 

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