Research from RCLCO Real Estate Advisors found that real estate industry sentiment is more optimistic than at the end of 2018, indicating that a downturn may not be coming as quickly as many predicted.
Responses from the year-end 2018 Sentiment Survey seemed to indicate that the downturn was forthcoming. Six months later, responses to the mid-year survey suggest that the recession could still be at least 18 months out. Furthermore, while respondents believe that most real estate sectors are firmly in the “late stable” stage of the cycle, the general sentiment is that most asset types are not quite as close to the “early downturn” phase as they had predicted six months ago.
Prior to the year-end 2018 survey, respondents had on average tended to push off the anticipated timing of the next downturn approximately two years from the date of the survey. In the year-end 2018 survey, respondents curbed this tendency, as 45% of respondents predicted that the downturn would be upon us by the end of 2019, including 20% of respondents who suggested that the downturn had already begun.
Respondents to the mid-year 2019 survey are once again pushing off the predicted timing of the downturn several years into the future. Approximately 88% of respondents believe the downturn will occur later than 2020, including 57% who believe it will not occur until 2021 or later.