This recovery is one in which builders would do well to recognize the trend lines and take a steady course of action rather than stutter steps, which can harm your business.
There’s too much noise. As executives we need to see and hear intelligence that is relevant for the success of our organizations. Figuratively speaking, we should wear blinders while excellent baroque classical music plays in our headphones. Classical music is like a trend line. It’s soothing, reliable, and stable. Yet noise—weekly economic indicators, monthly housing start numbers, and other short-term statistics—prevents us from recognizing trend lines in our business and acting proactively. Instead, we stutter step. We pay attention to the noise and move forward a bit, but then pull back. We only feel more confident to forge ahead when we see others jump in first. The result is stampede in our industry not unlike the mass migration of a Northern European rodent. I call it the lemming effect.