Tracking vacancy rates helps industry experts to assess the current health of the housing market, and to predict where it could be headed.
Current data show that homeowner and rental vacancy rates are low and tend to correlate with tight housing markets and signal a bigger housing supply shortage, according to National Association of Home Builders' assistant vice president for housing policy research, Natalia Siniavskaia. The latest NAHB analysis of Census data shows metros with "unusually low" vacancy rates, revealing a deep imbalance in local supply and demand.
In case of homeowner properties, natural vacancy rates are, typically, lower simply reflecting slower housing turnover with owners moving in and out less frequently compared to renters. It is important to keep in mind that owned seasonal (occasional use) properties do not affect the homeowner vacancy rate. In this case, the vacancy rate is the share of vacant units for sale in the combined stock of homeowner occupied, sold but not yet occupied, and for sale units. Nevertheless, the long-run homeowner vacancy rates tend to be higher in resort areas.
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