Metros With the Worst and Best Housing Crisis Outlooks

By analyzing vacancy rates, prices, and building permits, a study from LendingTree determined which markets are the most and least prepared to handle the ongoing housing affordability crisis
May 27, 2025
2 min read
123381114 © Sean Pavone | Dreamstime.com
Portland, Ore. skyline
Of the largest 100 U.S. metros, Portland, Ore., has the worst housing crisis outlook, primarily due to its lack of available housing.

Buying a home can be a challenge for many Americans, but that challenge can grow exponentially depending on the specific market where a homebuyer is located. Online lending marketplace LendingTree analyzed vacancy rates, housing unit approvals, and home value-to-income ratios across the top 100 largest U.S. metros to determine how well various markets are prepared to handle the ongoing housing affordability crisis. 

Overall, the report found that while markets in the Pacific Northwest have the worst outlook, many Southern metros have the best outlook.

Pacific Northwest metros have the worst housing crisis outlook

Three out of the five metros with the worst outlook are located in the Pacific Northwest, with Portland, Ore., ranking the worst, primarily because of its lack of available housing and relative unaffordability. Portland also has the fourth-lowest vacancy rate at 4.76% and 13th highest home value-to-income ratio. Boise, Idaho; Spokane, Wash.; and Salt Lake City follow just behind Portland for similar reasons.

The vacancy rates in Portland and Boise are less than half of those in many other big metros. When that happens, prices rise, making things even more expensive. Unfortunately, this isn’t likely to change in many of the most troubled metros because the data shows that insufficient building is being done.

- Matt Schulz, LendingTree chief consumer finance analyst

Meanwhile, Southern metros have the most positive outlook

The metros with the best outlooks are led by McAllen, Texas, Wilmington, N.C., and Winston-Salem, N.C., because of their growing inventory and high vacancy rates.

However, even in many Southern metros, unaffordability is growing. Three of the five metros with the biggest increases in home value-to-income ratios are in the South, including Durham, N.C., Charlotte, N.C., and Atlanta. In these metros, the home value-to-income ratios have grown by 8.6%, 7.2%, and 6.97%, respectively.

Despite unaffordability growing in the South, the region has been home to more attainable prices for quite some time

  • Sun Belt Metros Lead the U.S. in Home Building: A 2022 report from real estate platform Redfin found that Southern cities—such as Austin, Texas; Nashville; and Raleigh, N.C.—attract more buyers due to higher volumes of building permits and comparitavely lower home prices. 
  • Investors Are Taking Over Southern Housing Markets: Investors have been flocking to Southern states in recent years because of their more affordable price tags. For instance, in Texas, investors accounted for 28% of all of home purchases in 2021.
Sign up for Pro Builder Newsletters
Get the latest news and updates.