Why Some Economists Say the US Housing Recession Is Over

Despite ongoing affordability concerns and a dearth of new listings, home sales rose in June for the first time in four months, inching 0.3% higher despite an anticipated 0.5% decline. Transactions were still down 15.6% from a year ago, but experts say a housing recession is finally over.

Home prices are expected to remain steady this year, falling just 0.4% to $384,900, before rising 2.6% next year to $395,000, Realtor.com reports. In addition, the National Association of Realtors predicts that rates for 30-year mortgages will average 6.4% this year before falling to 6% in 2024.

Real-estate agents are looking to home builders to fill the gap as rate-locked homeowners hold out on selling. New-home sales surged in May, and while they lost some momentum in June, the broader trend is still upward.

The prices of new homes, which are generally seen as more expensive, are also coming down. The gulf between the median price of a new home and of an existing home narrowed in June, based on data from the NAR and the federal government.

“The recovery has not taken place, but the housing recession is over,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said. “The presence of multiple offers implies that housing demand is not being satisfied due to lack of supply.”

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