Analysis from the New York Times concludes that the housing market is in the midst of one of the greatest booms in modern American history.
Robert J. Shiller, co-creator of the S&P/CoreLogic/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, says the most recent numbers put prices at 53 percent higher than they were at the bottom of the market in 2012. Factoring in Consumer Price Index inflation, real existing home prices were still up almost 40 percent in less than seven years.
This makes it the third largest boom since the Consumer Price Index began in 1913, behind the period between February 1997 and October 2006, and the post WWII period of 1942 to 1947. Limited past examples means that it’s hard to predict what will happen to the housing market in the near future.
It can’t go on forever, of course. But when it will end isn’t knowable. The data can’t tell us when prices will level off, or whether they will plunge catastrophically. All we do know is that prices have been roaring higher at a speed rarely seen in American history.
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