As the world slowly recovers from the pandemic, the real estate market is being hit hard. Mortgage rates have soared from the average 30-year fixed rate, jumping from 3.1% to 5.3% this year. Housing economists call this change a “turned-over” housing cycle. The housing market, which expanded starting in 2011, is now on a steady decline. But even as the market for houses recedes, housing prices aren’t necessarily going to follow. Home sellers tend to try to hold onto those higher prices for as long as they can before having to lower their prices.
As the housing cycle “turns over” it’s only logical to ask if the housing market is headed for another historical anomaly (i.e. falling house prices) or the historical norm (i.e. rising house prices)?
To find out, Fortune reached out to Moody’s Analytics to get access to its latest proprietary housing analysis. Researchers at the financial intelligence firm calculated how house prices are likely to shift in 414 regional housing markets between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2024.
Advertisement
Related Stories
Housing Markets
States Seek Long-Term Solutions to Reform Property Taxes
Rising home prices typically lead to higher property tax assessments, which has been the case in many Mountain West states, prompting lawmakers to grapple with property tax relief
Housing Markets
Metros Where Housing Prices Have Doubled in Less Than 10 Years
Historical data show it's taken less than 10 years for home prices to double in 68 of the country’s 100 largest cities
Affordability
The Disappearing Act That Is Middle-Income Housing
An expert weighs in on the diminishing supply of middle-income housing, which is particularly acute in California, and what to do about it