Economists Push Back on Talk of Housing Market Slowdown

Despite recent reports that housing is facing a significant slowdown, several economists are countering that such warnings may be premature. 

Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial Corp, explains that housing market analysts "seem to be conflating woes in the existing-home market that have been caused by lean inventories," MarketWatch reports. Citing recent data data, Moody points out that the pace of single-family construction is seven percent faster year-over-year thus far in 2018, and permits grew by 5.7 percent. Michael Gregory, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, adds that the long-run trend for housing starts is "no longer 'constantly climbing,' and is more about converging to a steady state."

So far in 2018, single-family construction is running 7 percent faster than last year’s pace, he noted. Permits are 5.7 percent higher. The Commerce Department will release the July housing starts report on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect housing rates to rise 8 percent in July after a dramatic 12.3 percent drop in the prior month. Moody noted that housing starts also had a decent 4.8 percent rise in May. 

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