Housing Market Looking Healthy, Says Economist's Forecast

The National Association of Realtors' chief economist Lawrence Yun projects growth for home building, new home sales, and home prices for the rest of 2018 and into 2019. 

Yun explains that much of the current talk of a housing market slowdown is the result of incorrect conclusions based on the "muted growth" reflected in current market data. Despite the fact that existing home sales dipped 2.2 percent in the first half of 2018, Yun argues that this is a result of diminishing supply, not demand, which is a "much better problem to have," he writes for Forbes. Yun points out that homeowners worried about a housing bubble would do well to remember that today's market conditions are "fundamentally different," as supply is under-, rather than overbuilt, and lending standards are "still stringent, as evidenced by the higher than normal credit scores of those who are able to obtain a mortgage."

Despite the mostly good trends, worries are developing as to whether or not the housing market has peaked and is ready for a slide. How steep and how fast? After all, existing-home sales have fallen every month in June, save one. Additionally, housing starts, traditionally a good leading indicator of potential economic recession, tumbled 12 percent in June from the prior month. Moreover, many Americans have painful, lingering memories of the home price crash, rising foreclosures, and 10 million net job losses from the housing market bust a decade ago. Naturally, they want to know if there is even a remote possibility of a housing downturn.

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